Money Managers Turn Bearish 基金经理看熊市场

gohn

Money managers' market outlook is getting gloomier, but they're not positioning themselves for a prolonged recession, according to a survey set to be released Tuesday.

Just 32% of money managers believe U.S. stocks are undervalued, down from 42% three months ago, according to the latest quarterly Investment Manager Outlook survey by Russell Investments. Managers believe a slowing economy, inflation, shaky credit markets and energy costs are the top factors that could drag down stock returns in the second half of this year, the survey found.

The survey, conducted May 29 through June 6, collected 335 managers' views on various asset classes and sectors. Russell, a unit of Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Co., researches and selects money managers for investors, and markets the Russell lineup of market indexes.

Relative to last quarter, managers became substantially more bearish on many areas of the stock and bond market. The U.S. large-company growth asset class, for example, remained the most popular, but is now favored by 57% of managers, down from 64% three months ago. 'Growth' stocks are those whose earnings are growing faster than the market average.

Despite the gloom, managers signaled that they're not bracing for a long recession. U.S. small-company stocks, which tend to perform well coming out of economic downturns, earned higher marks than three months ago. Since investors tend to gravitate toward large-company stocks in times of uncertainty, small caps have been severely punished during the credit crisis, says Paulo Silva, portfolio manager at Penn Capital Management in Cherry Hill, N.J. Now, he says, 'some small-cap names seem to be becoming more attractive.'

Managers backed away from some traditionally defensive stock-market sectors. Just 54% are bullish on health-care stocks, for example, down from 71% last quarter, while 37% favor consumer staples, down from 47%. Technology, backed by 68% of managers, replaced health care as the most-favored stock sector.

'eople are beginning to eliminate the worst-case scenarios,' says Erik Ristuben, Russell's chief investment officer for multistrategy solutions. 'A profound recession is being taken out of the mix.'

Some survey results suggest managers are looking for the dollar to end its long slide. Managers lost enthusiasm for integrated oils and other energy stocks. Since oil is commonly priced in dollars, the falling greenback has boosted its price of late. 'If dollars aren't devaluing, that's one less pressure point on the price of oil,' Mr. Ristuben says. And foreign developed-market stocks, which have posted solid returns over the past several years, thanks largely to a falling dollar, are favored by just 42% of managers. That's down from 54% last quarter and a record low in the four-year history of the survey.

Expectations of slower growth in places like the U.K. and continental Europe also colored managers' views of foreign developed-market stocks, Mr. Ristuben says. Managers are more confident in emerging-market stocks, which are favored by 49%, up from 46% three months ago. Though many emerging-market stocks have tumbled this year, developing economies 'are the ones showing the most growth going forward,' Mr. Silva says.

Managers also signaled an expectation that U.S. interest rates will rise. Just 14% of managers favor U.S. Treasurys, down from 23% three months ago, while 27% are bullish on corporate bonds, down from 37%. Bond prices generally drop as yields rise.

As managers backed away from defensive investments, they also lost enthusiasm for cash, now favored by 24%, down from 31% in the first quarter.

Eleanor Laise

gohn

发现一篇略带悲观的文章

记得三个月前，好像正好就是巴菲特的股东演说的时候........