谁是全球通货膨胀的幕后推手？

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<div style="FONT-SIZE: 12px" id="blogDetailDiv"><p style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" class="MsoNormal" align="center"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">谁是全球通货膨胀的幕后推手？</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US"><p /></span></b></p><p style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" class="MsoNormal" align="center"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US"><p /></span></p><p style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" class="MsoNormal" align="center"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">（辛力文，《全球化》杂志社论，</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">2011.6</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">）</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US"><p /></span></p><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" class="MsoNormal"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US"><p /></span></p><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" class="MsoNormal"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US"><p /></span></p><p style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" class="MsoNormal" align="center"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">归根结底都是滥发美元惹的祸</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US"><p /></span></b></p><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" class="MsoNormal"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">目前，全球性通货膨胀正在蔓延。国际货币基金组织（</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">IMF</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">）数据显示，新兴和发展中国家</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">2009</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">年消费者价格指数（</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">CPI</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">）为</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">5.186%</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">，</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">2010</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">年为</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">6.206%</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">，</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">2011</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">年预计为</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">6.87%</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">，正在呈现加速上升趋势。相对而言，发达经济体的通胀压力要小一些，但也出现了明显的通胀苗头。发达经济体</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">2009</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">年</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">CPI</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">为</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">-0.115%</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">，</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">2010</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">年为</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">1.39%</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">，</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">2011</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">年预计为</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">2.017%</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">。与全球价格普遍上涨趋势相一致，</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">2010</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">年底至</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">2011</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">年上半年全球大宗商品、粮食和资产价格大幅上涨，近期里出现了小幅回落。</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US"><p /></span></p><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" class="MsoNormal"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">全球价格波动有着诸多原因，但是归根结底都是滥发美元惹的祸，幕后推手用一个字概括，就是</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">钱</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">，而全世界</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">钱</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">的源头就是美联储。最近半年，国际大宗商品价格快速上涨，根本原因并非全球实体经济供求关系发生了重大变化，而是美联储重启量化宽松货币政策（</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">QE2</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">），助长了国际资本投机和炒作。国际资本无序流动加大了新兴经济体通胀压力，加剧了主要国家之间货币汇率波动，也增加了全球金融体系不稳定。近期里，国际大宗商品价格回调主要原因是美联储准备在</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">月底结束</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">QE2</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">政策。</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US"><p /></span></p><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" class="MsoNormal"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">有一种说法，认为世界性通胀是中国经济快速增长带来的。曾几何时，不是有人指责中国向全球输送通货紧缩吗？现在这些人摇身一变，又开始指责中国向全球输送通胀了。很明显，这种说法是为美联储</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">QE2</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">开脱责任。美联储</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">QE2</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">政策的本质就是开动印钞机向全世界</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">注水</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">，因而，从一开始这种政策就蕴含着通胀风险。由于美国经济复苏缓慢、消费不旺，这一风险尚未变成现实，却对新兴经济体构成了现实威胁。</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US"><p /></span></p><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" class="MsoNormal"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">2008</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">年底以来，美联储一直保持接近于零的利率政策，而新兴经济体复苏速度快、投资回报率高，美国与新兴经济体之间的巨大利率差异，导致大量美元纷纷流向新兴经济体。<span style="mso-font-kerning: 0pt">面对来势汹汹的物价上涨和资产泡沫，新兴经济体中央银行纷纷紧缩货币，或者容忍本币升值，以减轻输入性通胀压力，但是收效甚微。新兴经济体采取加息政策，由于美联储维持零利率政策，必然会助推国际资本流入新兴经济体，从而抵消了新兴经济体紧缩性货币政策效果。国际储备货币发行国货币政策只考虑自身利益，加之缺乏必要的国际监管，给全球金融体系稳定带来了极大的挑战。</span></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US"><p /></span></p><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" class="MsoNormal"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">还有一种说法，认为美国</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">QE2</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">只是对商业银行惜贷政策的一种替代，不必对其大惊小怪，一旦美国经济恢复正常，全世界都将从中受益。持这种观点的人还认为，</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">2011</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">年以来，美国商业银行信贷增量是负的，美联储创造的货币</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">M2</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">增长也很低，低于美国经济增长率与通货膨胀率之和。因此，不能认为美国</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">QE2</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">政策造成了全球通胀。是的，仅从经济学教条出发，似乎美国</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">QE2</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">政策并未对美国物价上涨产生推动作用。但是，不应该忘记了，美元不仅是美国的货币，也是世界货币，美联储货币政策不仅作用于美国经济，也会产生</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">溢出效应</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">，对非美国家和地区产生重要影响。</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US"><p /></span></p><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" class="MsoNormal"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">笔者以为，以上现象恰好说明了，美联储制定货币政策出发点就是为了促进美国经济增长和增加美国就业，至于有多少美元会流到国外，恐怕伯南克自己也说不清楚。实际上，</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">多余的美元</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">都流到虚拟经济和国外去了，而对美国实体经济并未产生积极效果。在超低利率市场环境下，美国商业银行是不必发放贷款的，只要从美联储廉价借来资金用于购买美国国债，即可赚取近</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">个百分点的无风险收益。在</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">QE2</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">政策作用下，道琼斯股指一路走牛，产生了美联储所预想的</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">财富效应</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">，刺激了居民消费，因此，美国</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">借钱消费</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">的好日子似乎又回来了。但是，新兴经济体却普遍遭遇通胀压力和饱受资产泡沫之苦。</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US"><p /></span></p><p style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" class="MsoNormal" align="center"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美联储加息是结束全球通胀的根本途径</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US"><p /></span></b></p><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" class="MsoNormal"><span class="px71"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">半个世纪以前，美国前任财政部长约翰</span></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">·</span><span class="px71"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">康纳利曾经直言不讳地说过，</span></span><span class="px71"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">“</span></span><span class="px71"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">美元是我们的货币，却是你们的问题</span></span><span class="px71"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">”</span></span><span class="px71"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">。不过，这句话说得还是有点绝对了。是的，</span></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">国家主权货币充当国际储备货币，货币发行国不仅收取巨额的</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">铸币税</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">，还能通过发行货币向世界转嫁危机，通过输出通胀掠夺财富，换取国内宏观经济稳定。</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">2010</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">年</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">月，美联储推出</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">QE2</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">政策，使美国经济</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">成功</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">地避免了</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">二次探底</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">，给新兴经济体带来了通胀压力。但是，目前美国经济复苏依然缓慢，就业并未明显改观，房市继续低迷。与此同时，美元贬值趋势也损害了美元国际地位。</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US"><p /></span></p><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" class="MsoNormal"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">美元贬值导致国际大宗商品价格上涨，增加了美国进口成本，从而部分抵消了美元贬值带来的出口优势，也引发了对通胀的担忧。在美国国内，美元贬值态势还引发了心理恐慌，人们将</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">弱势美元</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">与</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">弱势美国</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">相挂钩，担心一旦美元贬值成为美国衰落的一种表现，则可能引起连锁效应，外国投资人会减少持有美国国债，石油输出国也可能考虑以一篮子货币而非美元定价等。美国经济决策者当然要尽量避免市场对美元信心流失，因为</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">强势美元</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">符合美国利益。但是，人们尚未看到美国采取有效措施提升美元价值。</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US"><p /></span></p><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" class="MsoNormal"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">2011</span><a target="_blank"></a><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">年初，中国总理温家宝形象地将通货膨胀比作一只老虎，</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">如果放出来，关进去很难</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">。全球性通胀这只老虎是美联储放出来的，当然要由美联储将它关进笼子里。货币主义大师米尔顿</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">·</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">弗里德曼说过，<span style="mso-font-kerning: 0pt">通货膨胀归根结底是一种货币现象。要把通胀这只老虎关回笼子里，关键是美联储货币政策必须回归常态。与此同时，保持世界大国货币汇率基本稳定，从而结束国际资本无序流动局面，为全球通胀治理创造良好的外部环境。</span></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US"><p /></span></p><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" class="MsoNormal"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美国虽然承诺结束</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">QE2</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">政策，但是，</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">2011</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">年美国大约有</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1">万亿美元国债到期，美联储恐怕难以摆脱主要购买者角色。短期内，美联储仍然难以下定决心加息，宽松货币政策还将继续，<span style="mso-font-kerning: 0pt">这种做法最终会</span></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">搬起石头砸自己的脚</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">。因为，国际大宗商品价格上涨也会推动美国出现成本推动型通胀，损伤了国内消费，从而抑制经济增长。因此，当务之急是新兴经济体应该继续</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://news.hexun.com/2011/2011jx2/" target="_blank"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; TEXT-DECORATION: none; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; text-underline: none" lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US"><u>加息</u></span></span></a></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">，但是美国必须率先加息，将实际利率恢复到零的水平。这是因为：</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US"><p /></span></p><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" class="MsoNormal"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">第一，美国加息打开了新兴经济体加息空间，有利于新兴经济体货币政策正常发挥作用。为了防止国际热钱大规模流入冲击，新兴经济体纷纷加强了资本管制，同时忍受着通胀煎熬而放缓加息。虽然新兴经济体央行已经数次加息，但实际利率远未达到治理通胀要求。当前，发达国家和新兴经济体的实际利率都不同程度地为负值。负利率扭曲了资金价格信号，刺激了投资，加剧了通胀，也误导了资源配置。</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US"><p /></span></p><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" class="MsoNormal"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">第二，美国加息可以扭转国际资本大规模流入新兴市场的态势。减少国际资本过分流入新兴经济体，有利于从货币源头上遏制新兴经济体的通胀。一旦美国开始加息，美元颓势立刻得以缓解，这将提高美元吸引力，有利于资本回流美国，有利于美国经济恢复增长，也有利于新兴经济体经济发展，这对美国和新兴经济体是一个</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">双赢</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">的政策选择。</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US"><p /></span></p><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" class="MsoNormal"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">　　第三，美国加息打压了大宗商品价格上涨预期，会在一定程度上抑制国际资本投机。如果美国继续维持低利率，国际市场机构将会认为新兴经济体不能完全控制货币流动性，新兴经济体将继续保持经济过热状态，国际大宗商品过热需求便不能从根本上冷却。从国际大宗商品市场输入的通胀，不仅影响到新兴经济体，对发达国家经济恢复也非常不利。</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US"><p /></span></p><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.25" class="MsoNormal"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">总之，治理全球通胀要从</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">源头</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", "serif"; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 楷体_GB2312" lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">抓起。鉴于美联储实际上部分承担了世界央行职能，因此，美国应该负起责任、尽快结束超低利率，新兴经济体应该及时跟进、适当加息。现在正是世界各国开始同步加息、推动世界经济复苏步入正轨的大好时机。</span></p></div>