|
2008年澳大利亚石油及天然气行业研究报告——The Australia Oil & Gas Report 2008
The latest Australia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.32% of Asia/Pacific regional oil demand by 2011, while providing 6.86% of supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.4mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached 24.84mn b/d last year. It should average 25.68mn b/d in 2007 and then rise to around 29.04mn b/d by 2011. In terms of natural gas, the region last year consumed 409bcm, with demand of 620bcm targeted for 2011, representing growth of 51.4% between 2006 and 2011. Production of 329bcm in 2006 should reach 478bcm in 2011 (+45.0%), but implies net imports rising from 80bcm per annum to 142bcm. Australia's share of gas consumption in 2006 was 5.79%, while its share of production was 11.81%. By 2011, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 4.50%, with the country accounting for 10.36% of supply.
Global oil demand growth is expected to be around 2.0% this year, with Asia Pacific and the CEE regions dominating. This is an encouraging rate of market expansion, given a relatively uncertain economic picture and high commodity prices. Our oil price projections for 2007 as a whole are revised upwards from the last quarterly report. We are now assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$59 per barrel, compared with the US$55 estimate provided by our last two quarterly reports. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$62.83, WTI averaging US$61.25/bbl, and Urals at US$59.42/bbl.
Australian real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is now forecast by BMI at 3.9% for 2007, up from 2.7% in 2006. We are assuming 3.4% growth in 2008 and 3.5% in 2009/10. There is no state oil industry, but a group of domestic and leading international companies is investing heavily in gas production and exports to help stave off Australia's declining oil output. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 546,000b/d by 2011, although the country is expected to pump 560,000b/d this year.
Consumption is forecast to increase by around 1.5% per annum to 2011, implying demand of 964,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 418,000b/d by 2011.
In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, Australia receives an unchanged composite score of 48, which continues to rank the country first out of 14 states included in the Asia/Pacific region. The overall business environment can be considered very attractive in a regional context, thanks largely to low levels of perceived political and economic risk, full oil industry deregulation, above-average licensing terms and a well-established competitive landscape involving several international oil companies (IOCs).
There is a relatively poor outlook for domestic upstream oil output growth, but significant gas potential. Similarly, the country's gas reserves position is much better than for oil. It is predominantly the attractions of the gas sector that will secure a continuing high level of IOC involvement.
目录及图表
Chapter 1 - Executive Summary
Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis
Australia Economic SWOT Analysis
Australia Political SWOT
Australia Business Environment SWOT
Chapter 3 - Regional Market Overview
Asia/Pacific Region
Australia
Chapter 4 - Business Environment Rankings
Australia
Asia/Pacific Region
Chapter 5 - Australia Business Environment Ranking
Economics – Long-Term Risk
Politics – Long-Term Risk
Oil & Gas Growth
Oil/Gas Reserves
Licensing/Regulation
Competitive Environment
Chapter 6 - Business Environment Overview
Political Risk Summary
Economic Risk Summary
Business Environment Risk Summary
Legal Code/Corruption
Foreign Direct Investment
Tax Regime
Chapter 7 - Oil Market Outlook
Assessing The Risks
Table: Crude Price Forecasts 2007
Revised Forecasts
Table: Oil Price Forecasts
Chapter 8 - Regional Supply and Demand
Asia/Pacific
Table: Oil Production (000b/d) – Asia/Pacific
Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) – Asia/Pacific
Chapter 9 - Global Picture
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Chapter 10 - Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil and Gas Reserves
Oil Supply and Demand
Gas Supply and Demand
LNG
Refining and Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Australia Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts
Other Energy
Table: Australia Other Energy – Historic Data & Forecasts
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Chapter 11 - Economic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity – Historical Data And Forecasts
Chapter 12 - Regional Case Study – ConocoPhillips
Table: Exploration And Production 2005
Table: Commercial Realisation – Refining And Marketing 2005
Chapter 13 - Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – Australia Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Chevron – Summary
ConocoPhillips – Summary
Shell – Summary
ExxonMobil – Summary
CNOOC – Summary
Table: Key Upstream Players
Woodside – Summary
BP – Summary
BHP – Summary
Table: Key Downstream Players
Santos – Summary
Others – Summary
Chapter 14 - Company Profile
Woodside Petroleum
Chapter 15 - BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
录入人:yuanyx录入时间:2008- |
|