QUEENSLAND'S mining boom is increasingly driving the state's property business, with population growth slowing in all areas except those close to new mines or processing plants.
The Midwood Report on the outlook for the Queensland property industry, released yesterday, claimed that the number of people moving to Queensland from other states was at its lowest level since 1983.
While in recent years interstate migration has accounted for more than 50,000 people a year -- 1000-plus people a week -- in the current year it is forecast to be only 10,000 people. Consequently, dwelling approvals across Queensland are at their lowest level for a decade, falling from a high of about 24,512 in the second half of 2007 to 10,634 in the most recent six months.
But while Queensland's population growth is expected to pick up again over the next few years, the pattern of development will change. There will be less emphasis on sea-change destinations, which have grown strongly in the past decade, and more on cities and towns close to mining areas.
Gold Coast dwelling approvals are at their lowest level since 1993, while those in Cairns, Townsville and Airlie Beach are either down in specific categories or only slightly up. By contrast, the most spectacular growth has been recorded in the central Queensland city of Gladstone, with growth of 26 per cent in three-bedroom houses and 29 per cent in four-bedroom houses.
Gladstone is the location for several new liquefied natural gas plants, which all require a large workforce in the construction phase, and there are several other industrial projects under way.
The other two areas of strong growth in dwelling approvals are Mackay, which is the coastal base for many of the mines in the Bowen Basin, 200km inland, and the southern Queensland inland city of Toowoomba, which is a base for much of the coal-seam gas industry in the Surat Basin, about 100km west.
But Midwood Report author Bill Morris cautioned against too much optimism about the mining industry's effect on the property market, pointing out that mining was not a big employer. "It's just not that labour-intensive. There is a lot of optimism about the mining boom at the moment, but previous mining booms haven't lasted that long," he said.
Mr Morris said that while parts of Queensland were depressed, there was confidence returning to the Brisbane market, especially for high-rise apartments.
He said there were three high-rise projects in Brisbane under way -- Madison Heights (Metro), Infinity (Meriton) and Capitol (Forrester Properties).
"You've got guys like David Devine in Metro who know the Brisbane market well, and if they're building, that's a sign that confidence is starting to return to the market," he said.
