2008年澳大利亚石油及天然气行业研究报告--摘要

enjoy · 发表于 2008-6-22 07:53:06

2008年澳大利亚石油及天然气行业研究报告——The Australia Oil & Gas Report 2008

The latest Australia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.32% of Asia/Pacific regional oil demand by 2011, while providing 6.86% of supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.4mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached 24.84mn b/d last year. It should average 25.68mn b/d in 2007 and then rise to around 29.04mn b/d by 2011. In terms of natural gas, the region last year consumed 409bcm, with demand of 620bcm targeted for 2011, representing growth of 51.4% between 2006 and 2011. Production of 329bcm in 2006 should reach 478bcm in 2011 (+45.0%), but implies net imports rising from 80bcm per annum to 142bcm. Australia's share of gas consumption in 2006 was 5.79%, while its share of production was 11.81%. By 2011, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 4.50%, with the country accounting for 10.36% of supply.

Global oil demand growth is expected to be around 2.0% this year, with Asia Pacific and the CEE regions dominating. This is an encouraging rate of market expansion, given a relatively uncertain economic picture and high commodity prices. Our oil price projections for 2007 as a whole are revised upwards from the last quarterly report. We are now assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$59 per barrel, compared with the US$55 estimate provided by our last two quarterly reports. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$62.83, WTI averaging US$61.25/bbl, and Urals at US$59.42/bbl.

Australian real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is now forecast by BMI at 3.9% for 2007, up from 2.7% in 2006. We are assuming 3.4% growth in 2008 and 3.5% in 2009/10. There is no state oil industry, but a group of domestic and leading international companies is investing heavily in gas production and exports to help stave off Australia's declining oil output. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 546,000b/d by 2011, although the country is expected to pump 560,000b/d this year.

Consumption is forecast to increase by around 1.5% per annum to 2011, implying demand of 964,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 418,000b/d by 2011.

In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, Australia receives an unchanged composite score of 48, which continues to rank the country first out of 14 states included in the Asia/Pacific region. The overall business environment can be considered very attractive in a regional context, thanks largely to low levels of perceived political and economic risk, full oil industry deregulation, above-average licensing terms and a well-established competitive landscape involving several international oil companies (IOCs).

There is a relatively poor outlook for domestic upstream oil output growth, but significant gas potential. Similarly, the country's gas reserves position is much better than for oil. It is predominantly the attractions of the gas sector that will secure a continuing high level of IOC involvement.

目录及图表

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary
Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis
Australia Economic SWOT Analysis

Australia Political SWOT

Australia Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 3 - Regional Market Overview
Asia/Pacific Region

Australia

Chapter 4 - Business Environment Rankings
Australia

Asia/Pacific Region

Chapter 5 - Australia Business Environment Ranking
Economics – Long-Term Risk

Politics – Long-Term Risk

Oil & Gas Growth

Oil/Gas Reserves

Licensing/Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 6 - Business Environment Overview
Political Risk Summary

Economic Risk Summary

Business Environment Risk Summary

Legal Code/Corruption

Foreign Direct Investment

Tax Regime

Chapter 7 - Oil Market Outlook
Assessing The Risks

Table: Crude Price Forecasts 2007

Revised Forecasts

Table: Oil Price Forecasts

Chapter 8 - Regional Supply and Demand
Asia/Pacific

Table: Oil Production (000b/d) – Asia/Pacific

Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) – Asia/Pacific

Chapter 9 - Global Picture
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)

Chapter 10 - Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil and Gas Reserves

Oil Supply and Demand

Gas Supply and Demand

LNG

Refining and Oil Products Trade

Revenues/Import Costs

Table: Australia Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts

Other Energy

Table: Australia Other Energy – Historic Data & Forecasts

Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario

Chapter 11 - Economic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity – Historical Data And Forecasts

Chapter 12 - Regional Case Study – ConocoPhillips
Table: Exploration And Production 2005

Table: Commercial Realisation – Refining And Marketing 2005

Chapter 13 - Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary

Table: Key Players – Australia Oil And Gas Sector

Overview/State Role

Chevron – Summary

ConocoPhillips – Summary

Shell – Summary

ExxonMobil – Summary

CNOOC – Summary

Table: Key Upstream Players

Woodside – Summary

BP – Summary

BHP – Summary

Table: Key Downstream Players

Santos – Summary

Others – Summary

Chapter 14 - Company Profile
Woodside Petroleum

Chapter 15 - BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Energy Industry

Cross checks

Sources

录入人：yuanyx录入时间：2008-